Heightened Risk Of Terrorist Events in Europe Due to Demonstrations Related to U.S. Presidential Inauguration
When a major world power undergoes a change of regime, there is always some form of geopolitical fallout. No United States Presidential Race in recent memory has been more charged and heated than the 2016 Presidential Race was. The allegations of wrongdoing across both sides of the political aisle at parties both foreign and domestic have been continuously flowing since well before the Primary Elections, which caused their own string of problems.
In this previous race, we saw a former US Secretary of State linked to a charitable organization that has verifiable links to foreign entities and a high profile businessman whose foreign investments and interests were well discussed in the run up to the election. When high profile elections include both parties having major foreign ties, the geopolitical fallout should be expected to be a lot more intense and frequent.
Current intelligence indicates that there are a large number of protests and/or demonstrations planned throughout Europe in the wake of the U.S. Presidential Inauguration 20 JANUARY 2017. These demonstrations occurred between 20 and 21 January and it would be reasonable to assume that not only will more demonstrations take place but that foreign personnel with hostile intent may either target the demonstrations directly or use the logistical strains on local security assets cause by the demonstrations themselves.
Current intelligence also indicates that these demonstrations are not intended to be long term in nature. Links to the organizing entities are attached in parentheses below so that CENTURION ASG clients with assets or interests in European cities can monitor future events.
NOTICE: The entities above are not considered threat organizations. With the preceding stated VERY CLEARLY, we must advise that *ANY* demonstration presents a security threat to the general area they occupy. While the demonstration may represent a just cause and the demonstrators themselves may be peaceful, major gatherings are soft targets and a soft target that generates massive attention is an ideal target for terrorist activity. Further, *ALL* U.S. Citizens are STRONGLY ADVISED by CASG Intelligence Staff and the United States State Department to avoid all demonstrations if possible while abroad.
The State Department has issued a travel warning (attached at bottom) for Europe through the Holiday Season and due to the heightened risk of terrorist activity that the demonstrations may bring, it is the opinion of this analyst that the same warnings and advice given in the alert should be heeded by all CASG Customers and/or United States Citizens abroad, particularly those in major metropolitan areas of Europe for at least the next 60 days.
State Department Travel Warning:
As usual, this situation is fluid and may change rapidly. This change could be a decrease or increase in risk. At this time, this analyst sees no need for taking any action other than an increase in vigilance and ensuring that consistent and constant situational awareness is maintained.
-Prepared by: CASG Intelligence Analyst, 0010 EST 23JAN17