Current intelligence indicate increasing activity involving the Islamic State in the Levant (ISIL), or terrorist activity inspired by ISIL, in India and the Pacific. It is well known that ISIL inspired attacks have occurred throughout Europe and in the United States (re: Orlando Pulse incident where shooter allegedly claimed his allegiance to the group during the event) and not without reason to suspect expansion of their activities.
In the Pacific, ISIL inspired attacks have occurred in Indonesia (JAN2016, attack on police post and Western coffee shop in Jakarta; JUL2016, Suicide bombing of police station in Solo; OCT2016, stabbing of 3 police officers in Tangerang; firebombing of church in Kalimantan, NOV2016; AUG2016, attempted stabbing of a priest in Medan; plus 15 other planned incident foiled by their discovery by security forces and subsequent arrest of over 150 militants.), Malyasia (JUN2016, grenade attack on nightclub in Puchong area of Greater Kuala Lumpur plus 13 plots disrupted by government security apparatus), the Phillipines (among numerous non attributed attacks, one incident involving the discovery of a live explosive device outside of the US Embassy inside Metro Manila stands out to this analyst as most likely inspired by foreign influence, which admittedly could come from a number of sources. This incident occurred in November 2016.), and Australia (three ISIL inspired stabbings since 2014, plus 11 plots spoiled by police intervention).
In India, current intel indicates that Islamic Extremist factions within that country are sending their own militants to ISIL controlled areas. Upon their return, this would essentially allow ISIL to join forces with such groups as Lashkar-e-Taiba (the entity that perpetrated the 2008 attacks in Mumbai),Jaish-e-Mohammed, and the Indian Mujahideen. Given the other groups' notoriety (particularly that of Lashkar-e-Taiba), if members of these groups were to travel to ISIL held areas and be further indoctrinated by ISIL then return to India, the resulting attacks would be nothing short of disastrous. This would be particularly true of these newly returned ISIL-inspired personnel were to link with Pro-Pakistani militants as there is no love lost between India and Pakistan and it is no secret that many Pakistanis would LOVE to see India ablaze. The potential for such a heavy increase in both ISIL inspired terrorist activity AND ISIL inspired actors attempting to subvert Indian government activities should events transpire as described about is certainly not a potential that this analyst would bet money against. This analyst is firmly convinced that the above described events WILL occur because it is his opinion that they already are and have been for some time.
ISIL and those inspired by them are unique in their direct targeting of private assets and civilians more often than government targets are selected. While this analyst personally despises such cowardice as the direct targeting of noncombatants, this analyst must also admit that such is at least a semi-intelligent strategy. By targeting the assets of groups of people you see as your enemy, you are hitting them and breaking the morale of their populace and private sector interests. By hitting civilian targets you are also building some form of loyalty... It makes one think long and hard about not at least paying lip service to being loyal to certain players or assisting them at least minimally just to keep from having your home or place of business being the next one on their list. This is not to say that ISIL or ISIL inspired personnel won't or doesn't threaten government targets, quite the contrary in fact.
Make no mistake, despite the previous US President's comments about this group being a "JV team," nothing could be further from the truth. ISIL is a serious and credible threat to the United States, her allies, and their interests. This threat is being magnified by the increased geographic area they are "represented" (used strictly for lack of a better term) in.
This free report on ISIL related activities was prepared as an IntSum by a CASG Analyst at 1318 6FEB2017. All persons with suspicion of terrorist activity should notify local security services and the nearest United States Embassy IMMEDIATELY.